Saturday, May 5, 2012

U.S. job revisions make Walker look worse

I shook my head at the general media response to yesterday's monthly U.S. jobs report. Sure, the headline number of 115,000 jobs gained overall and 130,000 private sector jobs is lower than previous months, but the media made it sound like we lost jobs instead of gaining them in the private sector for the 26th straight month. This Bloomberg news report lead is a good example.
American employers added fewer workers than forecast in April and the jobless rate unexpectedly fell as people left the labor force, adding to concern the economic expansion is cooling.

Payrolls climbed 115,000, the smallest increase in six months, after a revised 154,000 gain in March that was larger than initially estimated, Labor Department figures showed today in Washington. The median estimate of 85 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News called for a 160,000 advance. The jobless rate fell to a three-year low of 8.1 percent, and earnings stagnated.

Stocks and bond yields fell on bets that a slowdown in hiring will restrain the wage growth needed to fuel the consumer spending that accounts for 70 percent of the world’s largest economy. The data pose a challenge for President Barack Obama, who was attacked by Republican challenger Mitt Romney’s campaign today for his “failed economic record.”
But here's the funny part. February and March jobs numbers were revised upwards, February by 19,000 jobs and March by 34,000 jobs. So when you put together those 2 revisions with the 115,000 jobs added in April, that means we have 168,000 more jobs than the last numbers that were reported a month ago. So explain to me how you get 168,000 more jobs when 160,000 are expected, and that's considered "adding fewer workers than forecast." Doesn't anyone know math in business journalism?

Or are they just trying to make the presidential race more competitive by protraying the Obama recovery as "stalling out". Seems like the latter, because let's face it, if the recovery continues smoothly and R-money keeps being the clueless joker that he is, this presidential race feels like a Clinton in 1996-style cruise for Barack. So in order to keep you reading and watching, the media's going to trump anything up that might make Obama look shaky in order to make the 2012 elections a lot more "interesting."

But another item should be pointed out by these upward revisions. It allows us to refigure the Walker jobs deficit for here in Wisconsin, and it's not good news for Gov. Dropout. The overall jobs deficit is now past 65,000.

Total jobs- Wisconsin vs. U.S.

And the private sector Walker jobs deficit is now near 57,000.

Private sector jobs- Wisconsin vs. U.S.

I'd better be seeing these charts constantly over the next 31 days, and not just from me.


  1. With your blessing hopefully, I will be downloading these charts and adding them to my econ-data folder. The whole folder is going to be uploaded like crazy during the Walker recall, as well as the general presidential election.

  2. Chris- Go ahead, and do it ASAP. I'm getting tired of Walker trying to propagandize and lie his way out of his failures