Tuesday, October 2, 2012

Scotty Walkers right into a jobs fail

I'd been planning to discuss the recent release of Scott Walker's favorite jobs-counting measure, but I've been tied up and other subjects grabbed my attention in recent days, and I was almost ready to wait till another report came out to bring it back up.

Then our fair guv released this absurdity today.
Wisconsin’s continued private sector job growth is good news. I am particularly pleased with the gains in the manufacturing sector, which makes up a huge portion of our state’s economy.

The quarterly job count release today shows, yet again, the monthly job estimates are not accurate. I am hopeful that DWD will be able to work with the federal government to bring the monthly estimates back in line with the actual job numbers.

The fiscal reforms we put in place coupled with reforms like reducing frivolous lawsuits and bringing certainty and accountability to state regulations, have established a strong foundation for future job growth.

Moving forward, we will continue to find ways to make it easier for the people of our state to put Wisconsinites back to work.
We'll leave aside Walker's lame whining about how the numbers that are good for every other state in America somehow mean nothing for Wisconsin because they make him look bad. What Scotty's quoting is the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, and their report on the 1st Quarter of 2012 was released last week. (it's quite interactive too!) Now to Scotty's credit, this time the BLS accepted the Walker Administration's numbers for Wisconsin, instead of saying they were inflated like they were during the recall election, when Walker lied in his ads about how many jobs were created.

But just because Wisconsin's numbers were OK'd doesn't change the fact that the numbers are awful. Since the QCEW does not adjust for seasonal factors, the year-over-year number is best to use here, and it's a good benchmark, since it shows the results in the 12 months since Act 10. What it shows is that Wisconsin's had the lowest increase in jobs in the Midwest, and one of the worst overall, in 43rd place for the U.S.

Midwest job growth March 2011-March 2012
Mich +2.6%
Ind. +2.2%
Minn +2.1%
Ohio +2.0%
Iowa +1.9%
Ill. +1.5%
Wis. +1.08%

Bottom 10 states, jobs Mar 2011- Mar 2012
Penn +1.2%
Idaho +1.14%
Rh. Is. +1.11%
Wis. +1.08%
N.H. +1.0%
Hawaii +0.9%
Bama +0.8%
Del. +0.8%
Mi'sippi +0.8%
Maine +0.5%
New Mex. +0.4%

But at least Scotty's consistent, as Wisconsin was also 43rd in the last QCEW that tracked Walker's first year in office. Oh, and note that there's a lotta Bagger guvs in that "Bottom 10" list. Funny how that works.

Even worse, the QCEW also showed that job growth had slowed from the pace Wisconsin was on under the Doyle/Dem budget the previous year, before Act 10 was passed.

Job growth, Wisconsin March 2010-March 2012
March 2010- March 2011 +42,506 (+1.65%)
March 2011- March 2012 +28,133 (+1.08%)

I wasn't the only one that figured this out. WTDY's Amy Barrilleaux caught the Walker tweeting about this report, and she gave the context which showed the jobs report sucked. It also inspired Barrilleaux to spend a radio segment talking to Laura Dresser from the Center on Wisconsin Strategy discussing Walker's failure on creating jobs in Wisconsin.

Why our dumbass Governor would leave himself open to being slapped down like this is beyond me. But hey, when you're given an easy lob pass like this, you gotta throw it down! Hopefully a lot of others recognize this and throw down a number of legislators and Congressmen that chose to Stand with Walker when next month's elections roll around. Because it is definitely not working.

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